Demographic Transition/Shift

DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT/TRANSITION

Why in News?

The global population is aging, with more elderly people, and this is a prominent trend in the 21st century, according to IMF article.

Highlights:

By 2050, India will have 20% of its population as elderly, mainly due to declining fertility rates, which have fallen below the replacement level in most states.

Urban areas have a fertility rate comparable to developed nations at 1.6, and this, combined with longer life expectancy, will lead to a significant elderly population.

The world is getting older. Why?

The world is aging rapidly, primarily due to longer lifespans, lower birth rates, and larger numbers of people reaching old age.

For Example: In Japan, for instance, over 28% of the population is 65 or older. In the 1970s, there were more than three times as many young adults as older people, but by 2050, these age groups will be nearly equal in number.

This demographic shift has significant implications for societies and economies.

UNFPA India Ageing Report:

Key Highlights:

Demographic Trends:

Rapid growth of India’s elderly population, with a decadal growth rate of 41%.

By 2050, over 20% of India’s population will be elderly.

The elderly population in India is projected to surpass the population of children (0 to 15 years old) by 2046.

The population of people aged 80+ years is expected to increase by around 279% between 2022 and 2050.

Higher Life Expectancy of Women:

Women have a higher life expectancy at ages 60 and 80 compared to men, with variations across states and territories.

In Himachal Pradesh and Kerala, women at 60 years have a life expectancy of 23 and 22 years, respectively, which is four years greater than men at 60 years in these states.

Poverty and Well-being:

More than 40% of the elderly in India are in the poorest wealth quintile.

Poverty among the elderly is a concern, affecting their quality of life and healthcare utilization.

A significant proportion of elderly individuals, especially women, are living without any income, impacting their quality of life and healthcare utilization.

Regional Variations:

Significant inter-State variations in the elderly population and their growth rates.

Most states in the southern region and select northern states have a higher share of the elderly population than the national average in 2021, with this gap expected to widen by 2036.

Sex Ratio of the Elderly Population:

The sex ratio among the elderly has been increasing steadily since 1991, with a few exceptions.

In central India, women outperformed men in survival after 60 years over the decade.

Low Awareness of Social Security Schemes:

Elderly individuals in India have low awareness about social security schemes designed for them, with low awareness rates for various schemes, including the old-age pension scheme (IGNOAPS), widow pension scheme (IGNWPS), and the Annapurna Scheme.

Concerns and Challenges:

Poverty is gendered in old age, with older women more likely to be widowed, living alone, with no income, and dependent on family for support.

Major challenges include the feminization and ruralisation of the elderly population in India.

Government Initiatives for Ageing polulation:

Pradhan Mantri Vaya Vandana Yojana (PMVVY):

A pension scheme for senior citizens aged 60 and above, extended until 2023.

Integrated Program for Older Persons (IPOP):

A program to enhance the quality of life for seniors by providing essential services like food, shelter, medical care, and entertainment.

Rashtriya Vayoshree Yojana:

A scheme funded from a welfare fund, aimed at providing assistive living devices to elderly citizens below the poverty line with age-related disabilities.

SAMPANN Project:

An online pension processing system for Department of Telecommunications pensioners, ensuring direct pension credit to their bank accounts.

SACRED Portal for Elderly:

A portal created by the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment, helping citizens above 60 find job and work opportunities.

Elder Line: Toll-Free Number for Elderly:

A support system providing information, guidance, emotional support, and immediate assistance for elderly individuals facing various issues.

SAGE (Seniorcare Ageing Growth Engine) Initiative:

A platform connecting start-ups offering elderly care products and services, supporting entrepreneurship in this field.

Top of Form

Asymmetric Demographic Transitions Between North and South:

Demographic Differences:

The paper examines differences in population and demographics between wealthier countries (North) and less wealthy countries (South).

Impact on Savings, Investments, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows:

It explores how these demographic disparities influence various aspects, including savings, investments, exchange rates, and capital flows between the North and South.

Historical Belief:

In the past, there was a belief that the North could provide substantial financial capital to the South due to these demographic distinctions.

Changing Perspective:

The analysis indicates that this belief may no longer hold true, particularly after the 1970s, suggesting a shift in this viewpoint.

Bihar will soon become India’s second most populous state, right after Uttar Pradesh, while Rajasthan will surpass Tamil Nadu in population. Additionally, the combined population of the four largest southern Indian states will be less than that of Uttar Pradesh alone.

TERMINOLOGY:

United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)

It is a subsidiary organ of the UN General Assembly and works as a sexual and reproductive health agency.

Objective: UNFPA works directly to tackle SDGs on health (SDG3), education (SDG4) and gender equality (SDG5).

Silver Economy:

The silver economy refers to the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services that cater to the needs of older individuals, utilizing their purchasing power and addressing their needs related to consumption, living, and health.

Palliative Care:

Palliative care is explicitly recognized under the human right to health and it is a type of medical care that focuses on improving the quality of life for people with serious illnesses.

It is meant to address physical, psychological, spiritual, and social needs for people with conditions like heart failure, kidney failure, certain neurological diseases, cancer etc.