Considering the rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal, assess the implications for India’s national security. In this context, discuss how MIRV capabilities enhance India’s nuclear deterrence.

Why:

The Agni-5 ballistic missile test dubbed the “Divyastra”, was conducted by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).

Approach:

• In introduction highlight China’s nuclear expansion and its implications for global and regional dynamics, emphasizing the strategic challenge it poses to India.
• In the main body, address implications for India’s National Security like strategic imbalance, regional arms race, first-strike anxiety, deterrence compromise, etc. Next address how MIRV capabilities enhances India’s Nuclear Deterrence – strategic parity restoration, deterrence credibility, technological autonomy, cost-effective deterrence, etc.
• Conclude with India’s strategic advancements, particularly in MIRV technology, will play a crucial role in maintaining stability and deterring aggression.

Answer:

The enhancement of China’s nuclear capabilities, characterized by an increase in warhead count, diversification of delivery systems, and technological advancements such as MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles) and hypersonic weapons, underscores a deliberate move towards establishing a more assertive stance within the international arena. This substantial augmentation not only reflects China’s growing military ambitions but also poses a strategic challenge to its neighbours, particularly India.

Implications for India’s National Security:

• Strategic Imbalance: China’s enhanced nuclear capabilities potentially tilt the strategic balance in Asia, compelling India to augment its own deterrence to maintain regional stability.
  • Pushing India towards advanced ballistic missile defense and strike capabilities.
• Enhanced Chinese Second-Strike Capability: China’s MIRV capabilities ensure its ability to retaliate even after absorbing a first strike, increasing the survivability of its nuclear arsenal.
  • The deployment of MIRV-equipped DF-41 ICBMs.
• Regional Nuclear Arms Race: China’s nuclear expansion could spur a regional arms race, not just with India but also affecting Pakistan’s nuclear posture.
  • India’s advancements in nuclear capabilities, in response to China, could trigger Pakistan to further enhance its own nuclear arsenal, complicating regional security.
• First-Strike Anxiety: The opacity and unpredictability of China’s nuclear policy increase the risk of miscalculations, raising first-strike anxieties.
  • The absence of clear no-first-use (NFU) policies from China contributes to strategic instability.
• Strategic Deterrence Compromise: The advancements in China’s nuclear forces could undermine the effectiveness of India’s existing nuclear deterrent, necessitating upgrades to India’s nuclear doctrine and capabilities.
  • India may need to revisit its “No First Use” (NFU) policy and consider strategic options for enhancing its deterrent posture.
• Border Dispute Escalations: The nuclear backdrop intensifies the existing border disputes between India and China, adding a nuclear dimension to conventional conflicts.
• Cost Implications: Expanding and modernizing nuclear capabilities require substantial financial investment.
• Technology Proliferation Risk: Advancements in nuclear technology could lead to proliferation concerns, impacting global non-proliferation efforts.

As India responds to these emerging challenges, the integration of MIRV technology into its ballistic missile arsenal, notably the Agni-5 missile, stands as a testament to its resolve to maintain strategic deterrence and balance in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. MIRV technology enables a single missile to carry and deploy multiple nuclear warheads, each targeting a different location independently.

Enhancement of India’s Nuclear Deterrence through MIRV Capabilities:

• Strategic Parity Restoration: India’s development of MIRV technology, as demonstrated with Agni-V, helps restore strategic parity by ensuring credible second-strike capabilities.
  • Agni-V’s capability to carry multiple warheads allows India to penetrate missile defenses and target several cities or military assets simultaneously.
• Deterrence Credibility: The ability to target different locations simultaneously makes it difficult for adversaries to predict and defend against strikes, thus enhancing deterrence.
  • India’s no-first-use policy is strengthened by MIRV’s ability to assure a credible second-strike capability.
• Strategic Stability through Uncertainty: The uncertainty about the exact number of warheads and their targets associated with MIRV missiles adds to strategic stability by complicating China’s decision-making process regarding a first strike, thus deterring aggression.
• Technological and Strategic Autonomy: Developing indigenous MIRV technology demonstrates India’s technological prowess and strategic autonomy, reducing reliance on foreign technologies.
  • India’s successful test of the Agni-V MIRV missile showcases its self-reliance in critical military technologies.
• Cost-Effective Deterrence: MIRV technology provides a more cost-effective way to maintain a credible deterrent without proliferating the number of missiles.
  • Fewer missiles are needed to achieve the same deterrent effect, allowing for resource allocation to other strategic needs.
• Enhanced Negotiating Power: Possessing advanced technologies like MIRVs potentially strengthens India’s position in international arms control negotiations.
  • Favorable terms in future arms reduction or non-proliferation talks.

The development of MIRV capabilities by India ensures the credibility and effectiveness of its strategic forces in the face of evolving threats. As the regional security environment becomes increasingly complex, India’s strategic advancements, particularly in MIRV technology, will play a crucial role in maintaining stability and deterring aggression.

‘+1’ value addition:

• According to US Department of Defence report, China’s nuclear arsenal exceeded 500 as of May 2023, expected to reach over 1,000 by 2030, with many at higher readiness.
• As of January 2023, India has 164 nuclear warheads in its warhead stockpile.
• China is developing HQ-19 missile defenses to counter IRBMs like Agni-5, but their efficacy remains uncertain.