The demographic window

Context: Several reports including Lancet and UN population division predicts a decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and overall population in India.

• Total Fertility Rate reflects the average number of children a woman might give birth to in her lifetime.

Factors driving demographic transition:

• Rapid economic development, lower infant mortality rates, increased women’s education and work participation,
• Improved housing conditions and old-age security systems.

Significance of demographic transition:

• Rapid decline in TFR leads to a fall in dependency rate and larger share of working adults, boosting economic growth.
• Demographic transition increases labour productivity through capital resources, education investment, and age distribution changes.
• Declining TFR affects education outcomes, shifting focus to middle and higher education and skill development.
• With less childcare responsibility, more women are expected to join the workforce, especially in southern states.

The way ahead:

• Improvement in life expectancy brings challenges of aging population and increased healthcare demand.
• India must prepare to seize opportunities ahead of predicted time.

Source: The Hindu