1.29 by 2050: impact of India’s falling fertility rate

Context: Lancet study and prediction on India’s total fertility rate (TFR).

Concepts:

• Total fertility rate (TFR) refers to the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her reproductive age.
• Replacement level fertility refers to the total fertility rate at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration, typically TFR of around 2.1.

Highlights:

• India’s total fertility rate (TFR) is dipping to 1.29 by 2050, far lower than the replacement rate.
• From around 2 children per woman in 1950, the TFR has dipped to approximately 1.91 in 2024.
• The global TFR has also been declining, by 2050, 155 out of 204 countries will be below the replacement level.
• Implications:
  • Shrinking Workforce: A TFR below the replacement rate can lead to a shrinking working-age population in the long run.
  • Dependency Ratio: As the elderly population grows relative to the working-age population, the dependency ratio increases.
  • This means fewer working people are supporting more dependents, potentially impacting social services and healthcare systems.

Source: Indian Express